In a time of war and deep economic anxiety, Bordeaux’s futures campaign has begun, with the first top wineries releasing futures allocations this week. Early indicators suggest price increases will be minimal, with some producers even reducing prices from last year. The big question is whether all the top names will show similar restraint.
Château Pavie, Cheval-Blanc and Léoville Las Cases all released their first tranche of 2021 futures this week. Cheval-Blanc raised prices slightly, Pavie trimmed prices slightly and Las Cases dropped them by more than 14 percent compared to the 2020 futures on release. What’s more, the dollar is the strongest it’s been against the euro in several years, giving Americans a discount.
But the 2021 futures offer twin challenges for sales teams. The vintage was not easy: Heavy April frosts drastically reduced yields, and a rainy summer left many vintners fighting fungal diseases for much of the growing season. Some winemakers had to chaptalize in the cellars. Many are calling it a traditional vintage, more elegant than powerful. And they are quick to point out that methods in the vineyard and the cellar have drastically improved in the past 50 years—outstanding wines can be made even in challenging years.
Then there’s the economic outlook as the campaign starts. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a surge of COVID-19 cases in China have exacerbated the challenges faced by an economy already struggling with inflation and the after-effects of the pandemic. With the S&P 500 officially entering bear market territory this week, many who typically invest in Bordeaux futures aren’t feeling flush with cash.
“In a growing season that was clearly the most difficult since 2013, there is simply no reason for consumers to chase the 2021s simply because their prices are in line with 2020s,” advises Wine Spectator senior editor and lead Bordeaux taster James Molesworth. “Instead, go after more 2020s. Or better yet, stock up on 2016 Left Bank reds and 2015 Right Bank reds. Those are the still-young vintages to be socking away.” (Wine Spectator has not yet reviewed the 2021 vintage.)
May 20: Three Big Names Kickoff
Château Pavie’s owners released their first allocation of 2021 futures on May 18, pricing them at €234 per bottle, ex-négociant, down 2.5 percent on the 2020’s opening price. Thanks to the favorable exchange rate, leading American retailers are offering it for $302 per bottle, or $3,624 per case, a 13 percent drop on 2020s on release. However, the 97-point 2019 vintage is currently available at top retailers for $360.
Cheval-Blanc released its 2021 futures the day after Pavie, raising prices by 2.6 percent on the 2020’s opening price, at €390 per bottle, ex-négociant. The futures are available at U.S. retailers for $513 per bottle, or $6,156 per case. That’s 7 percent less than the 2020s on release. But the 97-point 2019 vintage is currently available at top retailers for $500.
The Left Bank debuted its first heavy hitter this morning, as Château Léoville Las Cases released its 2021 futures at €169 per bottle, ex-négociant, down 14.6 percent on the 2020’s opening price.
2021 Futures Prices
These estates represent a selection of leading wineries. Retail prices are an average of trusted retailers we follow. Prices for the 2021s are listed alongside the current prevailing retail price for Bordeaux’s recent benchmark vintages, so you can measure where the wines are vis-à-vis those currently on retail shelves. You’ll find more updates and analyses below the chart.
Data compiled by Cassia Schifter
| Château | 2021 initial futures offering at U.S. retail | 2020 initial futures offering at U.S. retail | 2020-2021 retail change | Current 2016 price at U.S. retail | Current 2015 price at U.S. retail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angélus | $NA | $380 | -% | $448 | $446 |
| Beychevelle | $NA | $85 | -% | $121 | $122 |
| Brainaire-Ducru | $NA | $50 | -% | $73 | $77 |
| Calon-Ségur | $NA | $121 | -% | $167 | $149 |
| Canon | $NA | $141 | -% | $205 | $325 |
| Canon-La Gaffelière | $NA | $80 | -% | $111 | $126 |
| Cheval-Blanc | $533 | $575 | -7% | $860 | $849 |
| Clos Fourtet | $NA | $118 | -% | $135 | $142 |
| Cos-d’Estournel | $NA | $223 | -% | $258 | $234 |
| Ducru-Beaucaillou | $NA | $240 | -% | $229 | $235 |
| Figeac | $NA | $243 | -% | $274 | $240 |
| Giscours | $NA | $62 | -% | $81 | $91 |
| Grand Puy Lacoste | $NA | $77 | -% | $108 | $93 |
| Haut-Brion | $NA | $628 | -% | $722 | $696 |
| Hosanna | $NA | $163 | -% | $175 | $209 |
| La Fleur-Pétrus | $NA | $260 | -% | $253 | $249 |
| La Mission Haut-Brion | $NA | $366 | -% | $529 | $501 |
| Lafite Rothschild | $NA | $701 | -% | $892 | $800 |
| Léoville Barton | $NA | $91 | -% | $163 | $150 |
| Léoville Las Cases | $NA | $308 | -% | $352 | $240 |
| Léoville Poyferré | $NA | $105 | -% | $137 | $121 |
| Les Carmes Haut-Brion | $NA | $128 | -% | $145 | $117 |
| Lynch Bages | $NA | $134 | -% | $167 | $166 |
| Malescot-St.-Exupéry | $NA | $61 | -% | $85 | $105 |
| Margaux | $NA | $629 | -% | $737 | $1,917 |
| Mouton-Rothschild | $NA | $627 | -% | $741 | $664 |
| Palmer | $NA | $342 | -% | $384 | $413 |
| Pape Clément | $NA | $96 | -% | $119 | $139 |
| Pavie | $302 | $346 | -13% | $459 | $436 |
| Pavie-Macquin | $NA | $88 | -% | $104 | $103 |
| Pétrus | $NA | $NA | -% | $3,225 | $3,689 |
| Pichon Baron | $NA | $162 | -% | $201 | $182 |
| Pichon Lalande | $NA | $197 | -% | $238 | $216 |
| Pontet-Canet | $NA | $112 | -% | $166 | $161 |
| Rauzan-Ségla | $NA | $100 | -% | $113 | $151 |
| Smith-Haut-Lafite | $NA | $140 | -% | $133 | $140 |
| Talbot | $NA | $59 | -% | $72 | $79 |
| Troplong-Mondot | $NA | $108 | -% | $168 | $146 |
| Trotanoy | $NA | $335 | -% | $375 | $315 |
| Valandraud | $NA | $157 | -% | $211 | $213 |
| Vieux Château Certan | $NA | $358 | -% | $379 | $402 |
NYR means a wine has not yet been submitted for review. NA means a wine has not been released or is not sold in sufficient quantities by U.S. retailers yet to determine an average price.